What happens if rudd wins

If the first polls after the elevation of Kevin Rudd represent the high water mark, then Tony Abbott and the Coalition will win. But if it's not—if Rudd and Labor can improve on that first blush result, however slightly—then the Government will win… The biggest single indication of how the political dynamics have changed is Abbott's refusal to debate Rudd unless Parliament is recalled or an election date announced.

Ordinarily, an opposition leader is the one making the challenge, keen to share the platform and the leadership status with the incumbent. But not this time. Meanwhile, the expectation was growing that the Rudd Government would probably seek a mid-October election, allowing the new ministry—and any policy changes—at least a few months to settle.

But the hectic schedule of global meetings Prime Minister Rudd expected to attend—along with the traditional reluctance to impose a campaign over the football finals—suggested that a mid-November election might be the preferred timing. On 8 July the Prime Minister announced a proposal for a major change in the rules for the election of the leader of the parliamentary Labor Party. The reforms—while generally well received [34] — were not without their critics.

Rudd is imposing new party rules that invest him with untouchable power if he wins the election. The role of unions in the ALP remained an issue that was still to be settled, with Barrie Cassidy observing:. Eventually a [Labor] national conference will decide the balance, free of pre-election restrictions… In any case, unions retain much of the control over pre-selections and through that process they have considerable clout in the caucus.

The poll said voter satisfaction with Rudd was up seven points to 43 per cent from the previous weekend. On 11 July, the Prime Minister delivered his first major speech on economic issues in an address to the National Press Club—originally proposed as a debate with Tony Abbott. By proposing this change, Rudd is making climate change an election issue again. Labor's primary came in at 39 per cent, up from the 29 per cent recorded just before Rudd replaced Julia Gillard.

Opposition Leader Abbott was on 41 per cent, a nine-point drop since the last survey. The Nielsen result was consistent with a ReachTEL poll of 1, Queensland voters that had Federal Labor's primary vote at 40 per cent since the leadership change—indicating Labor could pick up six federal seats in Queensland if that position held.

The Neilsen poll found that, with respect to discrete categories of policy, Labor led the Coalition with an eight-point advantage in health 50 to 42 ; a point lead in education 56 to 36 ; a point lead in environment 57 to 34 ; and an point advantage on the national broadband network 53 to Opinion polls also put the spotlight on Tony Abbott.

The previous day, a Roy Morgan poll had found that Turnbull was strongly preferred as Liberal Party Leader 51 per cent, up 4 per cent , well ahead of Abbott 16 per cent, down 2 per cent. On 19 July, as the Prime Minister prepared to announce his re-vamped asylum seeker policy, it was reported that Indonesia had agreed to his request to make it harder for people from Iran to enter the country in order to travel to Australia by boat.

Yes, the 20, people that we take is a small proportion of that and always will be. But we do take more refugees per head of Australian population than any other nation in the world… But that doesn't mean that we can let that program be dominated by people arriving in Australia by boat for two reasons.

One, it's very unsafe and we've seen far too many, far too many drownings at sea Moreover, the arrangement was said to offer substantial economic benefits to poverty-plagued PNG:. In return for housing the boat-arriving asylum seekers and resettling those found to be refugees, PNG receives a package of much-needed assistance, that includes redeveloping its universities, a new hospital, upgrading roads, a new courts complex, and the deployment of Australian police.

Reactions to the RSA were mixed. ABC News reported that some Papua New Guineans were warning Australia that the RSA would add to problems in the developing country, with local politicians questioning how the plan would be financed, and pointing out that resettled refugees may face hostility from locals. The only mandatory deportation to PNG is going to be so-called boat arrivals. Does the Prime Minister think that every refugee should arrive with a Qantas first class ticket in order to be real?

On 30 July , the Federal Opposition announced that it would build a tent city capable of housing 2, asylum seekers on the Pacific island of Nauru if it won office.

The Parliamentary Library has published several papers on refugees and asylum seekers which are available here. On Monday 22 July, a special Caucus meeting was convened in Sydney to consider the party reforms proposed by the Prime Minister a few weeks earlier. NSW union leaders had met on 12 July to discuss the proposal. At the Caucus meeting several senior ministers spoke against the reforms, including Stephen Conroy, who said that the 75 per cent threshold was too high and should be more along the lines of 50 per cent plus one.

Changes were also made to allow rank and file members 50 per cent of the vote on the leadership. The remaining 50 per cent would come from the federal Caucus. Those who think that making simple rule changes … is the end-point of reform, are kidding themselves ….

Changing the way the leader is elected must be just the start. Following a Cabinet meeting on 29 July to review the Budget in the light of falling revenues, Treasurer Chris Bowen said the government would stick to its budget strategy—including a returning to surplus by —17—but he did not specify whether the figure would be the same as the original May forecast. Towards the end of July rumours swirled that the election date would be 31 August—which would require the writs to be issued on 29 July.

According to an analysis carried out by the Australian Financial Review :. Poll analyst William Bowe—who blogs as The Poll Bludger — provided an overview of the direction of the polls. He said that the chances of majority government were Contemplating the coming election, the long-time academic commentator Dean Jaensch opined:.

So far, this election campaign has shown little evidence of uplifting speeches, inspirational material, wisdom, or of what political scientist A.

Lindsay calls the essential of democracy — discussion. On the other hand, there will be a record number of parties and candidates.

Perhaps some of the newer ones might bring some sparkle to the campaign, offer the voters something to think about, and generate some genuine discussion. The disclosure led to a period of strained relations which included Indonesia suspending its co-operation on efforts to stop people smuggling. The partisan politics of border protection showed little sign of abating.

Unless [Rudd] completely copies the Liberal Party platform, which he can't because he has ruled out towing back the boats, then any time a boat turns up, he will get the blame, even if his solution has made the numbers fewer than they would otherwise have been.

For any prime minister, a visit to the troops is an important show of support for the soldiers and for the mission. But for Mr Rudd, this visit was also a pre-campaign whistlestop designed to have maximum impact back at home. It will play well, no doubt. Pictures of Mr Rudd mobbed by men and women in uniform certainly will not do him any harm. But it was also a genuine opportunity for the Prime Minister to thank the troops for a job well done.

The mission has been accomplished, he told them. Thanks to their efforts, Afghanistan was no longer a safe haven for Al Qaeda. As July drew to a close, election fever seemed to ratchet up. Who that person is, will depend upon the independents. If Rudd got the support of the independents, he could continue to govern without an election if the governor-general appointed him as Prime Minister.

But he could also face a vote of no-confidence on the floor of parliament, which he would need to survive to keep on governing. If the support of the cross-benchers is unknown or unclear, the governor-general could defer making a decision on a new Prime Minister and leave it to the floor of the parliament to decide in whom it has confidence.

A parliamentary vote is the clearest and most democratic evidence of the support of the House. It would avoid any suggestion of bias or the exercise of discretion on the part of the governor-general and maintain the independence of her office.

And then the most likely outcome would be for the leader of the opposition to advise the governor-general to call an election. If they decided that an election would be the best thing for the country, they could support Tony Abbott and once he became Prime Minister, he would most likely seek an election. However, the independents have a very strong self-interest in keeping the government going, because as soon as an election is held, some may well lose their seats, and those that survive will lose their importance if there is a new majority government.

On the other hand, the thing about independents is they are independently-minded and somewhat eccentric. There's two ways she could approach it. If the independents backed Opposition Leader Tony Abbott, he could arguably present a case to Ms Bryce to form government.

Professor Twomey says Ms Bryce also has the power to dissolve the parliament - but that is not a simple step. We acknowledge Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples as the First Australians and Traditional Custodians of the lands where we live, learn, and work. As it happened: Labor leadership.

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